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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate. 

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) bring concentrated rainfall and flooding to the western United States (US) and are hypothesized to have supported sustained hydroclimatic changes in the past. However, their ephemeral nature makes it challenging to document ARs in climate models and estimate their contribution to hydroclimate changes recorded by time-averaged paleoclimate archives. We present new climate model simulations of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16,000 years before the present), an interval characterized by widespread wetness in the western US, that demonstrate increased AR frequency and winter precipitation sourced from the southeastern North Pacific. These changes are amplified with freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic, indicating that North Atlantic cooling associated with weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key driver of HS1 climate in this region. As recent observations suggest potential weakening of AMOC, our identified connection between North Atlantic climate and northeast Pacific AR activity has implications for future western US hydroclimate. 

Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ¹⁸O_ice), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ¹⁸O_iceis an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of −7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a “Goldilocks-type” indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as −5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as −5.85° ± 0.51°C. 

Abstract Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.